Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5013…17ea sports 47 markets active 11h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$216 (-17%) realized −$216 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% $0
crypto 34% −$99
other 14% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +6.0% -4.1% 45% 42% -14.9%
≤30d 40 +6.0% -4.1% 45% 42% -14.9%
≤90d 40 +6.0% -4.1% 45% 42% -14.9%
all 40 +6.0% -4.1% 45% 42% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 42% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 40% -23.0%
15% -21.7% 30% -30.4%
20% -29.3% 28% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$27 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$216
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 47
History coverage4d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $174 −$147 -84%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $87 −$86 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $96 +$140 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$18 +34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$14 +57%
Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 +$31 +307%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score AND Switzerland vs. Bosn Jun 18 $19 +$56 +288%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $40 +$58 +145%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $31 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$45 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$2 +7%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$44 +216%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$22 -86%
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: Bo Jun 17 $20 +$69 +335%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $4 +$1 +27%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $30 +$16 +52%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $4 +$4 +109%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both T BUY 23¢ $30 11h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $149 22h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $87 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $236 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $96 28h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 30¢ $24 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 28h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 31¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 29h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: B BUY 23¢ $24 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $36 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 44h
Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $10 44h
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $10 44h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $97 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score AND Switzerland vs. Bosn BUY 25¢ $19 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $40 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 18¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records