Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5014…9cff other 247 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 231L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$27
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$50
sports 23% −$23
politics 10% −$11
culture 5% −$7
economics 5% −$3
crypto 5% +$22
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 38 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 147 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 246 +0.2% -9.4% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)246 / 247
History coverage149d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 29 $154 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 29 $767 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 29 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $936 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 28 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 28 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 27 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $332 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 27 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 26 $791 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $590 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 26 $197 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 25 $429 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 25 $159 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 25 $77 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $587 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 24 $209 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 24 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $79 −$1 -1%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $593 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 23 $79 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $284 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $708 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $289 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $281 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $565 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $551 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $312 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $548 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $729 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $372 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $85 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 30 $299 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 28 $180 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $427 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 26 $313 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $338 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $392 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,095 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 25 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $157 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 24 $180 −$2 -1%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $182 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $74 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $74 5h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $75 7h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $74 9h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 12h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $75 16h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 18h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $75 21h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $75 22h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $75 25h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $75 26h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $75 34h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 36h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $75 37h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $75 38h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $75 40h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $75 42h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $75 47h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $76 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $76 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $76 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $76 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $76 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $76 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $76 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $76 3d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $76 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $76 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $76 3d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $76 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.34 · official $74.34 (match) · 1355 history records