Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:05:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
50 0x5016…1eeb other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,529 (-14%) realized −$6,332 · open −$197
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate58%21W / 15L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,222per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,236
7 days−$6,602
14 days−$6,604
30 days−$6,604
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$7,170
sports 2% +$916
world 1% −$500
politics 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -18.0% -25.8% 53% 40% -17.3%
≤30d 34 -13.2% -21.5% 56% 41% -17.3%
≤90d 36 -7.4% -16.2% 58% 44% -17.1%
all 36 -7.4% -16.2% 58% 44% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 44% -17.1%
10% -24.2% 33% -25.1%
15% -31.6% 31% -32.3%
20% -38.3% 22% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$977) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$212 vs −$734 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$303
Realized−$6,332
Unrealized−$197
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses21 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage42d
Avg bet$1,222
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 28¢ $500 $303 −$197 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7,504 +$158 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $203 +$78 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5,713 +$512 +9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$80 -78%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 +$68 +33%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5,016 +$601 +12%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $305 +$409 +134%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,422 +$1,155 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $503 +$45 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $651 +$114 +18%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $256 −$250 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $977 +$685 +70%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $347 −$342 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,042 −$3,021 -75%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5,024 −$4,235 -84%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$231 +226%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,008 +$283 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,873 −$1,873 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$10 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $9 +$13 +140%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $25 +$2 +6%
Will CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo win on 2026-05-22? Jun 08 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $15 +$18 +119%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $50 +$32 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $6,501 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $280 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $4,506 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,003 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 5¢ $22 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 71¢ $271 34h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 44h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $5,016 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $305 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $122 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,867 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $539 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $3,016 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 88¢ $548 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $503 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $765 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $256 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $651 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $507 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,662 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $977 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $303.09 · official $303.19 (match) · 77 history records