Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
50 0x501a…6de0 crypto 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate59%80W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$50
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$82
other 18% +$35
sports 2% $0
finance 1% +$4
politics 1% −$10
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +6.7% -3.5% 67% 60% -23.5%
≤30d 25 +12.9% +2.1% 72% 68% -11.0%
≤90d 25 +12.9% +2.1% 72% 68% -11.0%
all 136 +6.2% -3.9% 59% 43% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 43% -12.8%
10% -13.1% 30% -21.2%
15% -21.5% 24% -28.8%
20% -29.2% 19% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses80 / 56
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
History coverage138d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 136 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 29 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 29 $17 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 28 $52 −$50 -97%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $11 +$5 +44%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $58 +$8 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$9 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$3 +134%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $55 +$2 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $56 +$18 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $32 +$4 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +105%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 −$12 -64%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$4 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 16 $2 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 16 $2 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 16 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 16 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 12 $3 $0 +5%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 09 $3 $0 +16%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Mar 09 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 08 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 08 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4PM ET Mar 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 08 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 06 $1 +$16 +1565%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $2 26h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score SELL No 88¢ $16 27h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $11 31h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $58 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $57 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $55 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $36 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $32 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 63¢ $20 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 11d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 11d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 285 history records