Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x501c…b5ed other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$1
other 29% $0
crypto 5% $0
politics 4% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -2.4% -11.7% 23% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -2.4% -11.7% 23% 0% -9.7%
all 43 -0.6% -10.1% 42% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage460d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 24¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+125%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -26%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $75 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $39 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 9–16? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $11 $0 -4%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 06 $9 $0 -1%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 06 $1 $0 +9%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $12 $0 +2%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will 'Opus' gross less than 3m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 45h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $2 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes $1 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes $1 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $37 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $37 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 58¢ $39 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $39 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $20 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $14 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $21 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.70 · official $34.65 (match) · 105 history records