Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:38:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x501f…ef50 other 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+1%) realized −$52 · open +$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate72%34W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$606now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$49
14 days−$49
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$153
finance 20% −$27
world 11% +$63
politics 9% +$137
tech 3% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -39.8% -45.5% 50% 50% -46.8%
≤30d 4 -12.8% -21.1% 75% 75% -18.2%
≤90d 11 -1.8% -11.2% 82% 45% -13.7%
all 47 -4.3% -13.4% 72% 32% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 32% -11.2%
10% -21.7% 15% -19.7%
15% -29.3% 11% -27.4%
20% -36.2% 4% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$41 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$606
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$88
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses34 / 13
Open positions10
Markets (closed)47 / 57
History coverage158d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 68¢ 99¢ $210 $306 +$96 (+46%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 98¢ $55 $76 +$21 (+39%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 79¢ 95¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? No 88¢ 100¢ $27 $31 +$4 (+14%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 90¢ 100¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $61 −$55 -91%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 21 $57 +$6 +11%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? May 29 $56 +$9 +16%
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? May 29 $104 +$13 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 20 $63 −$10 -16%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Apr 20 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Apr 20 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 26 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? Mar 26 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 26 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Mar 25 $30 +$1 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? Mar 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Mar 13 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 09 $80 +$4 +6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Mar 09 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 08 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March? Mar 06 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 06 $50 +$65 +130%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 02 $60 +$2 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? Mar 02 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February? Mar 01 $60 −$27 -45%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February? Mar 01 $100 +$43 +43%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $115 +$29 +25%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $17 −$2 -10%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February? Feb 26 $101 +$15 +14%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 26 $20 −$19 -97%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 12 $108 +$8 +7%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 03 $278 +$97 +35%
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? Feb 02 $4 +$6 +155%
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? Feb 02 $75 +$34 +45%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of January? Jan 31 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of January 2 Jan 31 $37 −$33 -89%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of January? Jan 31 $24 −$1 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of January? Jan 31 $14 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January? Jan 30 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January? Jan 30 $88 +$9 +10%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 30 $112 +$2 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January? Jan 28 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jan 27 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Jan 27 $65 +$9 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of January? Jan 26 $74 −$11 -14%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jan 24 $110 +$3 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January? Jan 24 $248 +$92 +37%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jan 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 6m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 7m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $6 10m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $40 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $64 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $180 6d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $65 22d
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? SELL No 97¢ $117 22d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $56 31d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $61 31d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 42d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $50 42d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $32 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $32 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? SELL No 99¢ $34 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $28 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $2 88d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $1 88d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 86¢ $12 97d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? BUY No 94¢ $19 97d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? SELL No 99¢ $30 99d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? BUY No 89¢ $21 100d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? BUY No 94¢ $30 100d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 100d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $8 101d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $9 102d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? BUY No 82¢ $10 103d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? BUY No 63¢ $10 103d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? BUY No 90¢ $30 103d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? SELL No 83¢ $84 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $605.54 · official $605.54 (match) · 130 history records