Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
50 0x5020…36fc sports 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,989 (-9%) realized −$2,986 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%41W / 27L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$468per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$353est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$521
14 days−$891
30 days−$1,589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$3,799
other 2% +$560
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 49 -5.2% -14.2% 57% 53% -16.5%
≤90d 68 -5.3% -14.3% 60% 56% -18.7%
all 68 -5.3% -14.3% 60% 56% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 56% -18.7%
10% -22.5% 51% -26.5%
15% -30.0% 40% -33.6%
20% -36.9% 26% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$608) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$223 vs −$459 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized−$2,986
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses41 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$353
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage37d
Avg bet$468
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 52¢ 52¢ $266 $264 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $529 −$521 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $506 −$500 -99%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $608 +$560 +92%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $511 −$506 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $363 +$147 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $364 +$245 +67%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $343 +$190 +56%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $423 +$115 +27%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 12 $120 −$119 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $113 +$7 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $799 −$686 -86%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $17 −$17 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $427 +$389 +91%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $260 +$168 +64%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $201 −$198 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $155 +$47 +30%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $819 −$814 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 10 $399 −$393 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,430 +$487 +34%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $798 +$632 +79%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 08 $135 −$133 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $100 +$36 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $13 +$3 +26%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $13 −$12 -92%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $13 +$8 +63%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $13 −$13 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $13 −$13 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $10 +$11 +105%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $10 +$5 +48%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $11 +$10 +90%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $200 −$198 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $608 +$129 +21%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $446 +$162 +36%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $323 +$123 +38%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $133 −$9 -6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $253 +$78 +31%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $243 +$10 +4%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $433 −$427 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $3,539 −$2,715 -77%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $2,005 +$1,140 +57%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1,219 +$788 +65%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $778 +$442 +57%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $481 +$297 +62%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $111 −$110 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $22 −$22 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $13 +$9 +73%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 25 $3 +$9 +307%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 24 $335 −$331 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $1,118 −$1,103 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $270 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $529 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $506 7d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1,167 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $511 7d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $511 7d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $608 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 90¢ $609 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $364 7d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 70¢ $363 7d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 87¢ $533 7d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 55¢ $343 7d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 95¢ $538 7d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 74¢ $423 7d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) BUY Vitality 50¢ $120 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 99¢ $120 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 93¢ $113 9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 10¢ $112 9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $799 9d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $17 9d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $816 9d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $427 9d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $427 9d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $260 9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $201 10d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $202 10d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 76¢ $155 10d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 79¢ $819 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 50¢ $399 11d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 74¢ $1,430 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.89 · official $263.89 (match) · 117 history records