Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
50 0x5023…c061 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$123 (-3%) realized −$119 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$312per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$674now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$197
sports 7% −$2
crypto 1% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.9% -13.1% 45% 36% -13.9%
≤30d 11 -3.9% -13.1% 45% 36% -13.9%
≤90d 11 -3.9% -13.1% 45% 36% -13.9%
all 11 -3.9% -13.1% 45% 36% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 36% -13.9%
10% -21.4% 27% -22.1%
15% -29.0% 18% -29.6%
20% -35.9% 9% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$94 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$674
Realized−$119
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage4d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $358 $356 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 63¢ 62¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $713 −$14 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $651 +$62 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $807 +$190 +24%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $202 −$8 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $494 −$494 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $218 +$109 +50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $30 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $62 +$7 +12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $48 −$47 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $360 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $202 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 82¢ $663 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $678 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 85¢ $698 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $713 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $651 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $446 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 62¢ $195 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $146 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $348 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 63¢ $348 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $361 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $34 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 65¢ $30 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $87 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $60 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $48 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $673.87 · official $673.87 (match) · 34 history records