Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:00:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5024…b8bc sports 706 markets active 0h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$703 (-1%) realized −$703 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate61%432W / 274L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$225est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$254
14 days−$121
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$1,063
crypto 18% +$152
other 1% +$5
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -25.8% -32.9% 43% 26% -24.4%
≤30d 54 -15.8% -23.8% 52% 39% -9.4%
≤90d 251 -19.7% -27.4% 47% 39% -27.6%
all 706 -2.2% -11.6% 61% 44% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 44% -10.7%
10% -20.0% 32% -19.3%
15% -27.7% 22% -27.1%
20% -34.8% 14% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$51 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$703
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses432 / 274
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$225
Open positions0
Markets (closed)706 / 706
History coverage231d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 706 Trades
no open positions (63 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$1 +3%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $102 −$53 -51%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$7 -68%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $95 +$24 +25%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 −$4 -13%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $93 +$6 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$21 -35%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $85 +$29 +34%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $99 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $66 −$65 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $33 +$32 +98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $145 −$72 -50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $98 −$25 -25%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $136 −$82 -60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $120 +$16 +14%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $104 +$16 +15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $16 −$12 -75%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $102 +$14 +14%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $32 −$29 -92%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 −$79 -78%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $100 +$66 +66%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $50 +$5 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $53 +$8 +15%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $39 +$14 +34%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $87 −$48 -55%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$25 +24%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $101 +$15 +15%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $106 +$25 +23%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $101 +$38 +38%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $89 +$65 +73%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $73 +$35 +48%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $65 +$30 +46%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $155 +$34 +22%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $22 −$22 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 25 $39 −$38 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 24 $101 −$1 -1%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner May 23 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 22 $101 +$31 +30%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner May 21 $20 −$2 -10%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $81 +$35 +43%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 21 $99 +$81 +82%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $94 +$5 +5%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $203 −$10 -5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi May 20 $101 −$16 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 94¢ $51 9m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 24m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 38¢ $50 33m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $102 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 17¢ $3 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers $10 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 84¢ $120 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $95 26h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 37¢ $27 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $31 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 97¢ $98 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 91¢ $93 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 43¢ $40 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $114 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 73¢ $85 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 46¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $105 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 90¢ $0 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 94¢ $99 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 70¢ $99 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 69¢ $100 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 61¢ $66 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $66 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 50¢ $33 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 72¢ $71 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 75¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1841 history records