Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:09:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5028…91c5 other 182 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (433 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,875 (+15%) realized +$8,833 · open −$958
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate42%63W / 88L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day433.0pace
Fees−$384est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$3,373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$258
sports 32% −$557
weather 10% −$491
politics 2% +$5
world 1% +$2
crypto 0% +$75
culture 0% −$45
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (433 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 -19.3% -27.0% 42% 22% -10.7%
≤30d 151 -15.9% -24.0% 42% 23% -10.2%
≤90d 151 -15.9% -24.0% 42% 23% -10.2%
all 151 -15.9% -24.0% 42% 23% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover433.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.0% 23% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.2% 15% -18.8%
15% -37.9% 10% -26.7%
20% -44.0% 7% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$57 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$3,373
Realized+$8,833
Unrealized−$958
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses63 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$384
Open positions99
Markets (closed)151 / 182
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$284
Trades / day433.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 99 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? No 66¢ 100¢ $311 $471 +$160 (+51%)
Will T1 win MSI 2026? No 71¢ 74¢ $250 $259 +$9 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat? Yes 26¢ 36¢ $184 $259 +$74 (+40%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 76¢ 84¢ $232 $257 +$25 (+11%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $230 $234 +$4 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No 89¢ 89¢ $179 $178 −$1 (-1%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $160 $165 +$4 (+3%)
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 54¢ 38¢ $210 $146 −$63 (-30%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 2 Japan? No 97¢ 100¢ $128 $132 +$4 (+3%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? No 97¢ 100¢ $124 $128 +$4 (+3%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No 45¢ 28¢ $199 $127 −$72 (-36%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Doosan Bears Doosan Bears 53¢ 57¢ $90 $97 +$8 (+8%)
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? Yes 67¢ 80¢ $74 $88 +$14 (+19%)
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $95 $76 −$18 (-19%)
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31? No 85¢ 92¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+8%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $55 $60 +$4 (+8%)
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-5%)
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 0 Japan? No 97¢ 100¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+3%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 97¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 6¢ 4¢ $53 $31 −$22 (-41%)
Clavicular sentenced to prison? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+10%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+14%)
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 22¢ 14¢ $33 $20 −$12 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $655 −$302 -46%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $506 −$234 -46%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $245 −$245 -100%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $135 +$72 +53%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $507 +$105 +21%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $598 −$92 -15%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 20 $241 +$89 +37%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 20 $249 +$51 +20%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $471 −$87 -18%
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals Jun 20 $248 −$243 -98%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $402 −$110 -27%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 20 $512 +$63 +12%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 20 $224 −$97 -43%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $1,300 +$388 +30%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $659 +$100 +15%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $432 +$12 +3%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $349 +$9 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $508 +$12 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $1,078 −$136 -13%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $1,237 +$41 +3%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $381 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $1,395 −$5 -0%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $60 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 20 $339 +$4 +1%
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu Jun 20 $47 −$34 -73%
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu Jun 20 $20 −$10 -50%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $1,059 +$79 +7%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $100 −$24 -24%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 19 $249 +$32 +13%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 19 $361 −$20 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $122 −$82 -67%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 −$6 -40%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $115 −$106 -92%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $1,369 −$79 -6%
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+1.5) Jun 19 $166 −$166 -100%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 19 $242 +$114 +47%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 19 $250 +$92 +37%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 19 $252 +$106 +42%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 19 $213 −$171 -80%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $301 +$16 +5%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $667 +$120 +18%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $522 +$259 +50%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $490 +$50 +10%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $1,053 +$100 +10%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $481 −$122 -26%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $367 +$86 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 1m
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $68 5m
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $28 7m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $19 11m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 19¢ $2 26m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 19¢ $44 26m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 62¢ $9 26m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 26m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 68¢ $10 27m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 62¢ $41 29m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 29m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 54¢ $11 29m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 66¢ $18 29m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 62¢ $22 29m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 62¢ $9 29m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 60¢ $212 30m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 60¢ $25 30m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 30m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 48¢ $72 30m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 62¢ $16 34m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 35m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 35m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 35m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 35m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 60¢ $12 36m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 60¢ $3 36m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 36m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 36m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? SELL No 90¢ $65 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,372.57 · official $3,366.70 (match) · 3500 history records