Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:57:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5029…1120 other 597 markets active 3d ago coverage 554d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$120 (-9%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%242W / 351L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$21
sports 38% −$95
world 2% +$6
crypto 1% +$3
politics 1% −$11
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 50% -8.4%
≤30d 22 -36.4% -42.4% 32% 32% -39.5%
≤90d 44 -51.9% -56.5% 23% 23% -71.1%
all 593 -7.7% -16.5% 41% 40% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 40% -17.9%
10% -24.5% 40% -25.8%
15% -31.8% 38% -32.9%
20% -38.5% 35% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

554d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses242 / 351
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)593 / 597
History coverage554d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 593 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 51¢ 40¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 271 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Canada vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $5 −$4 -99%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $3 +$2 +50%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $2 +$1 +93%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $2 −$1 -98%
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $2 +$2 +109%
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 +$1 +89%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 +$2 +134%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 +$2 +128%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Südtirol win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 14 $1 +$3 +275%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $2 +$2 +85%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 07 $3 +$2 +55%
Will England win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Mar 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Dubrovnik: Lola Radivojevic vs Alina Charaeva Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Mar 14 $1 +$4 +376%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 3d
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 51¢ $2 6d
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 47¢ $2 6d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 6d
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 13d
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 13d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 15d
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 15d
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 15d
Will Canada vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 15d
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 15d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 18d
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 19d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 22d
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 22d
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 24d
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 24d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 24d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 24d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 24d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 24d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 24d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 24d
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 25d
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 25d
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 25d
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 25d
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.19 · official $7.19 (match) · 965 history records