Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x502b…3b15 crypto 650 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$35,973 (+29%) realized +$1,704 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate59%489W / 344L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day757.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11,062now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$519
7 days+$1,704
14 days+$1,704
30 days+$1,704
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$3,087
other 8% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 833 +1.4% -8.2% 59% 22% -8.4%
≤30d 833 +1.4% -8.2% 59% 22% -8.4%
≤90d 833 +1.4% -8.2% 59% 22% -8.4%
all 833 +1.4% -8.2% 59% 22% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover757.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 22% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 14% -17.2%
15% -25.0% 10% -25.2%
20% -32.4% 8% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$11,062
Realized+$1,704
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses489 / 344
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)833 / 650
History coverage3d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day757.9
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 833 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $3,100 $3,140 +$40 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $1,605 $1,482 −$123 (-8%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,080 $1,103 +$23 (+2%)
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes 85¢ 87¢ $1,020 $1,044 +$24 (+2%)
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $950 $950 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $931 $938 +$7 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 77¢ 82¢ $616 $660 +$44 (+7%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $615 $632 +$18 (+3%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 70¢ 99¢ $420 $594 +$174 (+41%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 85¢ 60¢ $680 $483 −$197 (-29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 77¢ 78¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 31¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+224%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 27¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+270%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 21¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+376%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $0 +$25 +61942%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $12 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $29 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $71 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $130 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $9 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $24 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $8 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $43 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $0 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,061.59 · official $11,055.75 (match) · 3500 history records