Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:11:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x502c…5ac1 crypto 185 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (114 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,227 (-6%) realized −$2,216 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%88W / 86L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day113.9pace
Fees−$190est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$373
sports 32% −$347
other 6% −$362
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (114 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 +2.9% -6.9% 51% 51% -10.4%
≤30d 174 +2.9% -6.9% 51% 51% -10.4%
≤90d 174 +2.9% -6.9% 51% 51% -10.4%
all 174 +2.9% -6.9% 51% 51% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover113.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 51% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 50% -18.9%
15% -23.9% 49% -26.8%
20% -31.4% 47% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +12% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$183 vs −$191 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$2,216
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses88 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$190
Open positions2
Markets (closed)174 / 185
History coverage6d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day113.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $29 $18 −$11 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $195 +$205 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $207 −$198 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $211 +$199 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $199 +$157 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $207 +$193 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $207 +$193 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $207 +$193 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $207 +$193 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $211 +$189 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $259 +$241 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $252 −$251 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $209 +$191 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $211 +$189 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $211 −$204 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 26 $204 +$196 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $215 −$208 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $206 +$194 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $259 +$227 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $208 +$192 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 26 $213 −$206 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $207 +$193 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $207 +$171 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $207 +$167 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $211 −$204 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $253 +$247 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $227 −$224 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $264 +$205 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $204 +$196 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 26 $215 −$208 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $318 −$309 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $318 +$82 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $215 −$208 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $207 −$204 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $215 +$185 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 26 $178 −$171 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $213 +$148 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $250 +$250 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $206 −$204 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $207 +$193 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 26 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $206 −$199 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 26 $242 −$238 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $175 −$169 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $203 +$197 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $251 +$187 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $130 −$109 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $229 −$223 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $129 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $207 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $195 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $176 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $156 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $196 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $207 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $201 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $207 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $207 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $132 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $75 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.25 · official $266.25 · 829 history records