Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:22:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x502c…728f sports 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$236 (-6%) realized −$237 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%33W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$304
7 days−$411
14 days−$345
30 days−$345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$144
other 14% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -14.4% -22.5% 48% 45% -19.0%
≤30d 64 -7.0% -15.9% 52% 48% -17.4%
≤90d 64 -7.0% -15.9% 52% 48% -17.4%
all 64 -7.0% -15.9% 52% 48% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 48% -17.4%
10% -23.9% 45% -25.3%
15% -31.3% 41% -32.5%
20% -38.0% 28% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$46 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized−$237
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses33 / 31
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage10d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 67¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $439 +$115 +26%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $300 +$139 +46%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $71 −$70 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $115 −$115 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $121 +$53 +43%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 +$21 +41%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $139 +$64 +46%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $99 +$40 +41%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $111 +$50 +45%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 +$56 +55%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$69 +135%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $82 +$31 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $21 +$33 +160%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$39 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$12 +23%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $74 −$74 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $48 +$19 +39%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$18 +172%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 +$28 +55%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 −$22 -72%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $250 +$8 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $21 +$22 +109%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$15 +74%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $160 +$15 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $100 −$96 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $102 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $102 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $555 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $439 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $439 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $300 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $71 15h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $51 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 36h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $174 36h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $72 39h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $72 39h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $50 40h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $51 40h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $102 40h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $203 40h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $139 42h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $139 42h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $99 44h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $115 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $51 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $51 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $161 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $51 2d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $158 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $60 2d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $102 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.67 · official $200.67 (match) · 130 history records