Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:10:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x502e…8aad world 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 344d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate27%26W / 71L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$19
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$32
politics 21% −$5
sports 15% +$1
other 11% +$6
crypto 1% −$7
economics 1% +$3
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 36 -0.4% -9.9% 28% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 77 -0.4% -9.8% 26% 1% -9.7%
all 97 -0.3% -9.8% 27% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

344d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses26 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage344d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $126 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $386 −$9 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $24 $0 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $133 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $93 −$6 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $374 +$9 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $122 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $122 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $17 −$1 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $162 −$12 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $603 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $13 +$1 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $544 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $79 −$2 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $134 +$3 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $144 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $261 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $570 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $260 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $288 +$12 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $545 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $153 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $130 −$8 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $265 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $127 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $140 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $282 −$15 -5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $145 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $142 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $11 +$3 +28%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $153 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $152 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $139 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 19 $136 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $119 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $137 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $274 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $137 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $151 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $152 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $279 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $126 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $126 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 46h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $13 47h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $22 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $22 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $82 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $33 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $117 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $88 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $92 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $3 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $10 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $92 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $106 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $98 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $24 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $122 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $88 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 94¢ $121 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $8 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $112 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $122 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.54 · official $0.00 · 436 history records