Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x502e…5442
sports · 59 markets active 2h ago
7.0score
+$9,901 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,223 · open −$56
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10,550
Realized+$9,223
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses24 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$479
Open positions12
Markets (closed)45 / 59
History coverage16d
Avg bet$840
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 12 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,438
7 days+$329
14 days+$7,606
30 days+$9,223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1,986 $2,273 +$287 (+14%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 52¢ $1,120 $1,029 −$90 (-8%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 62¢ $750 $868 +$118 (+16%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 66¢ $750 $811 +$61 (+8%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $750 $788 +$38 (+5%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $750 $743 −$7 (-1%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $750 $742 −$8 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $750 $733 −$17 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $750 $727 −$23 (-3%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 37¢ $750 $681 −$69 (-9%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 46¢ $750 $612 −$138 (-18%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 55¢ 40¢ $750 $542 −$208 (-28%)
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Cerundolo 57¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $289 $0 −$289 (-100%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 54¢ 0¢ $247 $0 −$247 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $764 −$623 -82%
Kostyuk vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $507 −$507 -100%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $507 −$507 -100%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $507 −$507 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $608 −$608 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 14 $607 −$607 -100%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $509 −$509 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $509 −$509 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 14 $611 −$611 -100%
Mensik vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 14 $913 −$913 -100%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $647 −$647 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,014 +$838 +83%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,963 +$2,106 +107%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 13 $1,001 −$55 -5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,017 −$13 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,016 +$1,158 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1,952 +$2,146 +110%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,014 −$46 -5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,393 +$605 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1,574 +$953 +60%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $764 −$66 -9%
Wales vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $557 +$386 +69%
Norway vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $507 +$426 +84%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $658 +$462 +70%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 06 $251 −$247 -99%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 05 $948 +$648 +68%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 05 $762 +$34 +4%
San Marino vs. Bangladesh: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $764 +$1,309 +171%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 05 $1,048 +$1,227 +117%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $508 +$586 +115%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 03 $547 −$37 -7%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1,009 +$438 +43%
Poland vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $507 +$472 +93%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 02 $797 +$836 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $1,310 +$1,064 +81%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $1,314 +$670 +51%
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $507 +$401 +79%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $607 +$376 +62%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) May 31 $506 −$500 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $508 +$491 +97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $374 +$335 +89%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 30 $1,016 +$1,080 +106%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $294 −$289 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 60% +$6,776
other 34% +$586
crypto 6% +$1,806
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $141 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1,012 10h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1,014 10h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $4,069 10h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $947 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over 61¢ $947 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 63¢ $1,001 12h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $1,004 12h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $121 14h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1,016 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1,017 20h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $1,012 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 17¢ $1,076 36h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 46¢ $1,016 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,016 36h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $4,098 36h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $968 38h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $968 38h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $984 39h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,014 39h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,999 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1,393 2d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $764 2d
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $760 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,527 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $708 2d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $698 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $866 3d
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $253 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -21.5% -29.0% 35% 35% -8.2%
≤30d 45 +9.3% -1.1% 53% 51% +13.2%
≤90d 45 +9.3% -1.1% 53% 51% +13.2%
all 45 +9.3% -1.1% 53% 51% +13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 51% +13.2%
10% -10.6% 51% +2.4%
15% -19.2% 51% -7.5%
20% -27.2% 47% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,549.91 · official $10,549.91 (match) · 139 history records