Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x502f…327f other 15 markets active 3h ago coverage 125d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$122 (-4%) realized +$1 · open −$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$2,794now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 125d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$133
crypto 7% +$9
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$20 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$2,794
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$123
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1 / 15
History coverage125d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $250 $249 −$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $250 $237 −$12 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $200 $232 +$32 (+16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $250 $214 −$36 (-14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $189 −$11 (-6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $177 −$23 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $223 $177 −$46 (-21%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $172 $162 −$10 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $173 $153 −$20 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $177 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $178 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $206 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $229 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $257 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $256 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $256 3d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,794.44 · official $2,798.32 (match) · 19 history records