Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:37:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5033…41da crypto 749 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,044 (-3%) realized −$3,039 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate93%695W / 52L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$112
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$222
sports 25% −$2,782
other 8% −$79
weather 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +10.3% -0.2% 70% 70% +7.7%
≤30d 33 -11.9% -20.3% 55% 52% -11.0%
≤90d 556 -0.8% -10.2% 96% 4% -9.7%
all 747 -2.1% -11.4% 93% 6% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 6% -12.4%
10% -19.9% 4% -20.8%
15% -27.7% 4% -28.4%
20% -34.7% 3% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$89 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$3,039
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses695 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)747 / 749
History coverage134d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 747 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $67 $64 −$2 (-4%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 40¢ 38¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $18 +$12 +67%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 +$47 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $59 +$41 +70%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $34 −$34 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +47%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $45 +$5 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $21 +$19 +86%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 +$19 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $24 +$26 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $23 +$7 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $19 +$11 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $27 +$23 +83%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +21%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $24 +$26 +105%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $26 +$4 +13%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +114%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $11 +$9 +83%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$48 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $81 −$81 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$105 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 29? May 02 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 02 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 30 $68 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 30 $47 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 30 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April? Apr 30 $26 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 29? Apr 30 $11 +$18 +162%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 30 $0 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 30 $0 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 20 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 20 $50 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 20 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 20 $50 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 19 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $41 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $18 5h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $46 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 29h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $34 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 38h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $21 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $45 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $23 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $21 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $11 4d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 54¢ $27 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 48¢ $24 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 6d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 88¢ $26 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 7d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $11 7d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $6 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.00 · official $102.00 (match) · 2330 history records