Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5034…f2f8 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$411 (-20%) realized −$411 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%18W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$448
7 days−$359
14 days−$359
30 days−$466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$661
politics 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -40.3% -46.0% 50% 25% -43.2%
≤30d 7 -31.4% -37.9% 43% 29% -39.4%
≤90d 10 -28.0% -34.9% 50% 30% -39.2%
all 41 -25.0% -32.1% 44% 39% -40.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 39% -40.2%
10% -38.6% 37% -46.0%
15% -44.5% 17% -51.2%
20% -50.0% 15% -56.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$42 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$411
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage119d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $249 −$240 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $240 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $224 −$220 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $264 +$89 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 01 $66 −$65 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 01 $275 −$137 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 01 $104 +$95 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 09 $23 −$23 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 09 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 09 $17 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 06 $3 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 06 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 06 $34 −$10 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 06 $13 +$7 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 06 $13 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 06 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 06 $22 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 06 $25 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 06 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 06 $13 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 06 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 06 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Mar 06 $9 +$6 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 04 $57 −$29 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 04 $24 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Feb 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Feb 26 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Feb 26 $23 +$8 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Feb 26 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 24 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 20 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Feb 20 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Feb 20 $30 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Feb 20 $23 +$31 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $252 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $150 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $203 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records