Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5035…cf0d crypto 328 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$456 (+1%) realized +$517 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%148W / 161L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,094now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,157
7 days+$147
14 days+$439
30 days+$412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$582
sports 19% +$562
other 12% −$430
world 2% −$185
politics 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 163 -1.8% -11.1% 42% 40% -8.6%
≤30d 238 +2.8% -7.0% 47% 45% -7.3%
≤90d 309 +0.7% -8.9% 48% 45% -11.3%
all 309 +0.7% -8.9% 48% 45% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 45% -11.3%
10% -17.6% 41% -19.8%
15% -25.5% 37% -27.5%
20% -32.8% 34% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$69 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$1,094
Realized+$517
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses148 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions19
Markets (closed)309 / 328
History coverage72d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner FURIA 50¢ 52¢ $146 $152 +$6 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 68¢ $79 $94 +$15 (+19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $75 $91 +$16 (+21%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $80 $86 +$6 (+7%)
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 65¢ 66¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+2%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? No 24¢ 30¢ $48 $60 +$12 (+25%)
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 18¢ $80 $48 −$32 (-40%)
Will Switzerland go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 42¢ 38¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+8%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 57¢ 34¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 48¢ 50¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 16¢ 5¢ $80 $23 −$57 (-71%)
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $22 $15 −$7 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $171 −$50 -29%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 18 $328 +$36 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$99 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 +$32 +208%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $169 +$171 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $71 +$71 +100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $35 +$28 +79%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $43 +$57 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$46 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$14 +43%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 +$36 +101%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $17 +$22 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +89%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$24 +93%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $8 +$21 +262%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$12 +20%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $66 +$19 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$33 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$33 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $317 −$317 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $142 +$168 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $362 +$328 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $407 +$502 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $220 +$189 +86%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 51¢ $47 2m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 50¢ $102 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $53 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $286 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $118 15m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $132 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $94 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $104 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $39 28m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 30m
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 30m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 31m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 31m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $37 38m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $10 38m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 57¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 42¢ $12 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $38 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,093.72 · official $1,093.72 (match) · 1140 history records