Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5038…6236 sports 317 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$131,464 (-15%) realized −$140,574 · open +$9,110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%135W / 180L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,730per market
Trades / day66.3pace
Fees−$12,795est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$25,965now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$161,603
7 days−$147,689
14 days−$138,472
30 days−$133,086
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$143,711
other 4% +$29,757
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -35.8% -41.9% 26% 20% -54.3%
≤30d 189 -26.8% -33.8% 36% 27% -32.4%
≤90d 315 -16.8% -24.7% 43% 33% -23.0%
all 315 -16.8% -24.7% 43% 33% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 33% -23.0%
10% -31.9% 29% -30.4%
15% ← realistic here -38.5% 26% -37.1%
20% -44.5% 20% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$3,200) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,610 vs −$1,911 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$25,965
Realized−$140,574
Unrealized+$9,110
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses135 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$12,795
Open positions4
Markets (closed)315 / 317
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$2,730
Trades / day66.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $11,200 $11,298 +$98 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 52¢ 100¢ $5,205 $9,989 +$4,785 (+92%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 0¢ 48¢ $0 $4,231 +$4,231 (+0%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $451 $447 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 131 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Jun 18 $1,612 −$1,612 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $256 −$252 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $390 +$390 +100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $703 −$698 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $426 −$426 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $6,300 −$6,300 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 18 $6,171 −$6,171 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $5,233 −$5,233 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 18 $7,023 −$7,019 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $4,828 −$4,828 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $3,175 −$3,175 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $2,456 −$1,637 -67%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs 1win - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $3,493 −$3,493 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 18 $7,118 −$5,421 -76%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $11,176 −$7,876 -70%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $4,768 −$4,768 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Jun 18 $11,618 −$10,488 -90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 18 $6,395 −$6,395 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 18 $7,490 −$7,490 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 18 $5,000 −$4,793 -96%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $9,300 −$8,938 -96%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $11,864 −$9,245 -78%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 18 $6,520 −$6,520 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 18 $39,930 −$39,924 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $393 −$393 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $36,964 +$36 +0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $581 −$581 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,905 −$1,895 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $280 −$280 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $452 −$446 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,802 +$19 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,687 −$2,635 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $218 −$116 -53%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$42 +206%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12,544 +$24,350 +194%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $224 +$151 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $578 −$578 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $297 −$1 -0%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $8,745 +$5,136 +59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1,026 −$709 -69%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $256 +$5 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $6,466 −$6,464 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6,993 +$1,407 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,713 −$1,712 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,103 +$1,031 +49%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6,200 +$3,790 +61%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4,941 +$3,159 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $11,200 11m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $223 18m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $228 18m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 53¢ $105 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 52¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 52¢ $101 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $25 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $0 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $22 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $22 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $0 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $9 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $20 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $101 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 17¢ $14 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $426 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 51¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 52¢ $62 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 52¢ $580 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 54¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 54¢ $205 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 52¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 52¢ $101 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,965.36 · official $25,967.36 (match) · 3500 history records