Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:57:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5038…ae15 weather 176 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$329 (+1%) realized +$240 · open +$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate84%144W / 28L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$348per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$907now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 38% −$1,157
other 21% +$456
economics 12% +$441
world 9% −$86
finance 7% −$424
politics 5% +$100
sports 4% +$1,042
crypto 4% +$20
tech 0% +$3
culture 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -13.9% -22.1% 78% 22% -8.9%
≤30d 12 -10.2% -18.8% 83% 17% -8.9%
≤90d 82 -6.5% -15.4% 78% 7% -13.9%
all 172 -1.3% -10.7% 84% 9% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 9% -9.0%
10% -19.3% 6% -17.8%
15% -27.1% 3% -25.7%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$91 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$907
Realized+$240
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses144 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)172 / 176
History coverage157d
Avg bet$348
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $721 $810 +$89 (+12%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $97 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $318 +$80 +25%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $326 +$22 +7%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$5 -85%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $341 +$15 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $79 +$3 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $358 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $142 −$132 -93%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $81 +$19 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $418 +$1 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $53 +$1 +2%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $680 +$35 +5%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $13 −$12 -92%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $37 +$2 +5%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $151 +$12 +8%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $27 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 13? May 13 $485 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 13? May 13 $28 −$9 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 13? May 13 $78 −$39 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 13? May 13 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 12? May 12 $403 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 12? May 12 $284 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 12? May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 12? May 12 $9 −$4 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 11? May 11 $146 +$2 +2%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 11 $996 +$23 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 9? May 09 $188 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 9? May 09 $937 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 8? May 08 $535 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 7? May 07 $263 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 7? May 07 $54 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 7? May 07 $281 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 6? May 06 $650 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 6? May 06 $519 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 06 $3 +$1 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 06 $190 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 6? May 06 $92 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 6? May 06 $795 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 6? May 06 $170 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 6? May 06 $94 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 06 $172 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 05 $7 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 2? May 02 $281 +$6 +2%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 02 $473 +$84 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $826 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 29? Apr 29 $194 +$6 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $2,331 −$435 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $268 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $179 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $179 1h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $183 2h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $98 3h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 3h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $68 3h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $159 11h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $79 11h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $79 11h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $196 22h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 23h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 23h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $355 23h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 82¢ $32 23h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 82¢ $42 23h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $12 23h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $31 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $7 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $97 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 96¢ $29 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 96¢ $96 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $21 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 93¢ $59 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 82¢ $48 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 82¢ $8 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $907.10 · official $957.10 · 1562 history records