Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:37:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5038…99ee sports 193 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$301 (-5%) realized −$301 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate65%122W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$455
14 days−$291
30 days−$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$322
other 16% +$13
crypto 0% +$2
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -25.2% -32.3% 58% 45% -38.2%
≤30d 131 -9.7% -18.3% 63% 49% -15.3%
≤90d 189 -5.7% -14.7% 65% 52% -13.9%
all 189 -5.7% -14.7% 65% 52% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 52% -13.9%
10% -22.9% 37% -22.1%
15% -30.3% 28% -29.6%
20% -37.2% 21% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$301
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses122 / 67
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions4
Markets (closed)189 / 193
History coverage61d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Over 85¢ 84¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 92¢ 96¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 54¢ 44¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-19%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 74¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $9 +$1 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -76%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 +$2 +54%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $8 +$2 +18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $45 −$21 -46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $24 −$18 -76%
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $9 −$4 -41%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $193 +$7 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 14 $174 +$26 +15%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $84 +$16 +19%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 Jun 14 $176 +$24 +14%
Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $85 −$74 -87%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $436 −$368 -84%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 100.5 Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $90 +$7 +8%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $273 +$11 +4%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +82%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +82%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 199.5 Jun 11 $42 +$8 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 11 $269 +$31 +12%
OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow Jun 10 $34 +$16 +46%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -74%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 09 $2 +$2 +100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 198.5 Jun 09 $91 +$9 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 09 $492 +$37 +8%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 99.5 Jun 09 $45 +$7 +15%
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow Jun 08 $7 +$3 +35%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +13%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 06 $8 +$2 +18%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 06 $190 +$10 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 194.5 Jun 06 $320 +$30 +9%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 06 $2 $0 +11%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3 +$2 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $43 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 54¢ $11 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1 18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $4 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $4 35h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5 SELL Under 12¢ $1 35h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $4 36h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $4 38h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $4 38h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $5 39h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 40h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 44h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $4 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $4 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $3 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 SELL Over 23¢ $6 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $4 2d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $4 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $8 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $20 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 92¢ $23 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $4 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 54¢ $5 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 90¢ $3 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 90¢ $6 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 92¢ $18 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 BUY Under 84¢ $84 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.94 · official $74.94 (match) · 528 history records