Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5039…51cc crypto 1080 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,084 (-11%) realized −$1,084 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate45%482W / 598L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$27
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$297
other 15% −$145
culture 11% −$215
sports 7% −$60
world 6% −$121
finance 5% −$69
politics 4% −$75
tech 1% −$3
weather 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -25.0% -32.2% 34% 34% -12.4%
≤30d 164 -19.5% -27.2% 40% 39% -12.4%
≤90d 451 -20.1% -27.7% 42% 25% -20.2%
all 1080 -11.6% -20.0% 45% 32% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 32% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 26% -26.3%
15% -34.7% 21% -33.4%
20% -41.1% 16% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,084
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses482 / 598
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1080 / 1080
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1080 Trades
no open positions (96 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $29 +$16 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $29 +$21 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $7 +$39 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $23 +$44 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 24 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$24 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$24 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $14 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $19 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $14 +$20 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $19 +$18 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $13 +$22 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$12 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $18 +$22 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $13 +$21 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$19 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $29 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $27 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $30 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $15 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $14 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $11 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $19 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $16 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $12 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $8 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $14 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $4 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $14 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $20 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records