Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
50 0x503a…8322 sports 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,683 (+8%) realized +$5,146 · open +$537
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%67W / 57L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$574per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$919est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,265
7 days+$854
14 days+$854
30 days+$5,073
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$6,732
other 5% −$734
politics 3% +$24
crypto 2% −$398
world 2% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +9.0% -1.4% 48% 48% +6.0%
≤30d 49 +15.6% +4.6% 55% 53% +7.9%
≤90d 104 +3.4% -6.4% 53% 51% -3.4%
all 124 +8.9% -1.5% 54% 52% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 52% -1.6%
10% -10.9% 46% -11.1%
15% -19.5% 39% -19.7%
20% -27.4% 30% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$670) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$449 vs −$440 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$2,260
Realized+$5,146
Unrealized+$537
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses67 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$919
Open positions3
Markets (closed)124 / 128
History coverage237d
Avg bet$574
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 100¢ $600 $1,149 +$549 (+92%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $600 $595 −$5 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $524 $517 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $608 −$600 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $659 −$650 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $163 −$162 -99%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $663 −$653 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $507 +$402 +79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $504 +$183 +36%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $512 +$2,349 +458%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $309 −$300 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $504 −$269 -53%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $510 +$630 +124%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $606 +$264 +44%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $608 +$445 +73%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $900 −$900 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $513 +$717 +140%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,017 −$791 -78%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $1,005 −$923 -92%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $515 +$237 +46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $513 +$687 +134%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $484 +$416 +86%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $812 +$198 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,019 +$181 +18%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 31 $1,611 −$44 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $1,554 −$1,012 -65%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $909 +$2,633 +290%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1,010 +$503 +50%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $636 −$628 -99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 27 $907 +$107 +12%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $1,013 +$51 +5%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $609 +$411 +67%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 27 $654 −$654 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $1,309 +$991 +76%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5 May 26 $510 +$630 +124%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5 May 26 $1,032 +$261 +25%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $605 −$541 -90%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $610 +$390 +64%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 24 $1,001 +$139 +14%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) May 24 $560 −$560 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 24 $605 −$415 -68%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $610 −$605 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 24 $600 −$593 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $595 +$105 +18%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $602 +$258 +43%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 May 22 $604 +$196 +32%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $503 +$237 +47%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $482 +$3,018 +626%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 20 $503 −$495 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 20 $557 −$543 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $591 −$585 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $608 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $609 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $608 15h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $659 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $509 29h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 30h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 26¢ $43 31h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 24¢ $39 31h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 31h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 24¢ $46 31h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 31h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 31h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 31h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $663 44h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,572 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $289 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $204 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $103 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 35¢ $235 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $206 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $504 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $507 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $504 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $606 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Cô BUY 33¢ $510 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 75¢ $900 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 75¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,260.48 · official $2,260.48 (match) · 466 history records