Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:56:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5043…84b5 other 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,006 (-0%) realized −$1,006 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate24%45W / 141L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,483per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$16
14 days−$52
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$154
other 34% −$74
sports 12% −$797
economics 4% −$15
world 3% −$5
culture 1% −$7
crypto 1% −$10
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 44 +5.6% -4.5% 14% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 113 -6.1% -15.1% 8% 4% -10.1%
all 186 +0.1% -9.4% 24% 9% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 9% -9.9%
10% -18.1% 9% -18.5%
15% -26.0% 8% -26.4%
20% -33.2% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,181) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$20 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,006
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses45 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)186 / 186
History coverage151d
Avg bet$1,483
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 186 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $794 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $1,135 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 20 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,015 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $2,141 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $283 +$1 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,604 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,776 −$3 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2,754 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $4,233 −$6 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $4,348 −$5 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,981 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,862 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $4,271 −$5 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,203 −$5 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,581 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,819 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,880 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $2,491 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $5,465 −$6 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $81 +$46 +57%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,640 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $60 +$100 +165%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,953 −$5 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $4,096 −$6 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,673 −$3 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 02 $2,872 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,596 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $503 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $779 +$3 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $937 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $804 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $719 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $997 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $3,454 −$4 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $47 +$60 +129%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,278 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $4,999 −$5 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $4,773 −$7 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $2,345 −$3 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 21 $1,646 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $793 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $794 2h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $1,133 2h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,135 5h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $496 2d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $497 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,014 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,015 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $476 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $476 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,402 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,404 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,773 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,776 5d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,267 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,268 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,335 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,337 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,463 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,465 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,498 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,500 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,453 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,455 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $283 11d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,642 11d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,645 11d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,631 11d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,633 11d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,653 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 650 history records