Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
50 0x5046…a07e crypto 1411 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$6 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate74%1046W / 363L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$10
14 days−$50
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$70
crypto 44% −$171
other 2% −$18
politics 0% +$4
finance 0% +$1
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.1% -13.2% 67% 50% -3.8%
≤30d 357 -0.1% -9.6% 65% 58% -10.6%
≤90d 1091 +0.2% -9.4% 74% 54% -10.0%
all 1409 -0.7% -10.2% 74% 51% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 51% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 31% -18.9%
15% -26.6% 18% -26.7%
20% -33.8% 11% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses1046 / 363
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1409 / 1411
History coverage98d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1409 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 85¢ 86¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs KOLESIE 73¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 266 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$12 -77%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $25 +$5 +18%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $25 +$3 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $6 −$1 -12%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -75%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $25 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$8 +81%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $19 +$6 +31%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $10 $0 -2%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $15 −$13 -89%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $25 −$5 -20%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 08 $20 +$6 +28%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 +$5 +26%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $15 −$10 -66%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 +$5 +98%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 08 $20 +$5 +24%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro Leag Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Jun 08 $20 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs INFURITY Gaming (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $10 +$2 +16%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $20 +$4 +18%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $15 +$4 +29%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $5 +$3 +58%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 +$2 +38%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $5 +$2 +33%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $5 −$2 -49%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 07 $20 +$5 +23%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $10 +$7 +66%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs VENOM ESPOR (BO3) - TESFED League Jun 07 $5 +$4 +70%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 07 $20 +$3 +17%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $13 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifi Jun 07 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$6 +62%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $15 $0 +3%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $5 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $13 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY KOLESIE 73¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed SELL KOLESIE 30¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY KOLESIE 21¢ $3 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Infinite 100¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 84¢ $25 3h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL GenOne 100¢ $28 3h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY GenOne 88¢ $25 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $3 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 58¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 5¢ $1 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 63¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 19¢ $2 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY GenOne 92¢ $25 6d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $18 6d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 54¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 98¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 74¢ $15 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 45¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 33¢ $4 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 99¢ $13 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 74¢ $10 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 25¢ $2 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 54¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.24 · official $13.24 (match) · 2700 history records