Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5046…59ff crypto 345 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$82 (+1%) realized +$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%176W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$55
14 days+$55
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +7.7% -2.6% 61% 57% -2.6%
≤30d 42 -2.7% -12.0% 52% 45% -5.6%
≤90d 345 -15.6% -23.7% 51% 42% -10.7%
all 345 -15.6% -23.7% 51% 42% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 42% -10.7%
10% -31.0% 30% -19.2%
15% -37.6% 21% -27.0%
20% -43.7% 12% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses176 / 169
Open positions0
Markets (closed)345 / 345
History coverage90d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 345 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 30 $26 +$26 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 30 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 30 $26 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 30 $32 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 30 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 30 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 30 $57 +$22 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 30 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$22 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$19 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$33 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$16 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$12 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $13 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 05 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 02 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 02 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 02 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 02 $6 −$4 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 02 $12 +$8 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 02 $4 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 02 $15 −$8 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 25 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 25 $11 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 25 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 25 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 25 $11 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 25 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 25 $5 +$4 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $34 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 862 history records