Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5048…3bc4 crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-3%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%26W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$42
weather 14% −$12
sports 10% −$99
other 6% +$26
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -0.5% -10.0% 49% 43% -13.6%
≤30d 53 -0.5% -10.0% 49% 43% -13.6%
≤90d 53 -0.5% -10.0% 49% 43% -13.6%
all 53 -0.5% -10.0% 49% 43% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 43% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 25% -21.9%
15% -26.4% 15% -29.4%
20% -33.7% 11% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses26 / 27
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage6d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$7 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$6 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$8 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$9 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $15 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $15 −$1 -5%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 +$9 +82%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$1 +49%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $10 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$17 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$13 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$5 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 66¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 70¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 75¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 61¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 71¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 75¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 67¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records