Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:47:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x504b…8ab9 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate61%17W / 11L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$8
other 21% $0
politics 6% +$1
crypto 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.4%
≤90d 4 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.4%
all 28 -2.8% -12.1% 61% 4% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 4% -7.7%
10% -20.5% 0% -16.5%
15% -28.2% 0% -24.6%
20% -35.2% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.39 per $1 lost it wins $5.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses17 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage452d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 85¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $98 +$6 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $75 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $34 +$2 +6%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $9 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 28 $10 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 09 $10 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 10 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 10 $1 $0 +9%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 05 $1 $0 -32%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 25 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 23? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $40 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $26 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $11 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $36 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $30 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $30 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $9 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $39 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $39 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $12 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $24 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $34 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $35 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $29 24d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? SELL No 94¢ $9 354d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 96¢ $10 363d
Will Atletico Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $11 364d
Will Atletico Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $11 364d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? SELL No 94¢ $10 364d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 93¢ $10 365d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 365d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 365d
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 98¢ $10 366d
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 97¢ $10 368d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 368d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 372d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.95 · official $39.95 (match) · 82 history records