Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:31:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
50 0x504e…1a2f sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$321 (+17%) realized +$321 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$369
14 days+$303
30 days+$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$301
other 1% +$3
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +30.8% +18.3% 55% 50% +13.6%
≤30d 29 +9.9% -0.6% 52% 45% +8.2%
≤90d 29 +9.9% -0.6% 52% 45% +8.2%
all 30 +9.6% -0.8% 53% 43% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 43% +8.1%
10% -10.3% 40% -2.2%
15% -19.0% 40% -11.7%
20% -26.9% 23% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$39 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized+$321
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions5
Markets (closed)30 / 36
History coverage589d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+3%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 27¢ 28¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $51 +$40 +79%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $51 +$81 +158%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $134 +$11 +8%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $101 +$42 +42%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $101 +$53 +52%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $153 −$150 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $50 +$18 +36%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $50 +$23 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $50 +$18 +36%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $101 −$5 -5%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$2 -3%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $51 −$3 -5%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $102 +$298 +291%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$157 +307%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 +$88 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +21%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum above $3,000 on November 15? Nov 16 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $51 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $71 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $71 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 24h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $51 24h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $51 24h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 24h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $33 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $153 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 69¢ $98 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $101 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $101 2d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $50 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $97 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $50 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 50¢ $49 5d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $50 5d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 47¢ $48 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 5d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $51 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $51 6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $102 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes $1 7d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $51 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.45 · official $290.45 (match) · 58 history records