Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:49:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x504f…369a world 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate31%22W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$1
other 25% −$6
politics 20% $0
sports 9% +$1
economics 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 27 +0.1% -9.4% 41% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 63 +0.2% -9.4% 32% 3% -9.5%
all 71 -4.1% -13.3% 31% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 4% -9.8%
10% -21.6% 3% -18.4%
15% -29.1% 1% -26.3%
20% -36.1% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses22 / 49
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage523d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 49¢ 49¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $40 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $82 +$2 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $48 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $73 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $90 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $44 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $23 $0 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $2 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $33 +$2 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $7 +$1 +13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $12 −$1 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $49 −$4 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $5 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $7 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? May 18 $4 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $33 +$2 +5%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $111 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $87 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $98 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $21 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $2 $0 -14%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $129 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $13 $0 -4%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $49 $0 -1%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 49¢ $8 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $14 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $11 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $25 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $27 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $40 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 69¢ $39 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $17 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $17 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $19 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $25 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $36 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $16 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $31 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $47 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 98¢ $47 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 99¢ $48 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $6 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $42 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $48 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.85 · official $7.84 (match) · 283 history records