Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:29:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x504f…abc3
other · 121 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$147 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$149 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 108
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage108d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 1 History 120 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Raptors vs. Clippers Raptors 39¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Jazz Jazz 62¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Clippers 67¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Hornets Grizzlies 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Nets vs. Heat Nets 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Bulls 38¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Hawks Celtics 45¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Suns vs. Magic Suns 47¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Rockets Rockets 76¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Magic Magic 87¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Pelicans Wizards 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $160 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $127 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $120 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $231 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $109 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $224 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 14 $127 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $128 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $109 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $121 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 10 $105 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $111 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $102 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $95 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $104 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $243 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $111 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $136 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $131 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $239 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $106 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $99 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $115 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $219 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $40 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $108 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $98 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $109 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $248 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $123 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $471 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $121 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $365 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $103 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $133 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $129 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $135 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $126 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $118 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $141 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $110 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% −$9
politics 31% −$7
sports 9% −$133
world 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $20 5h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 7h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 16h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 19h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 4d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 5d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 14d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $120 15d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 22d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $132 23d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $132 24d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $109 24d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $109 25d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $132 26d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $132 28d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $102 28d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $102 29d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $127 31d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $127 31d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $128 32d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $128 32d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $118 32d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $118 32d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $92 33d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $92 33d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $109 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 114 -3.4% -12.6% 10% 7% -10.2%
all 120 -6.3% -15.2% 10% 8% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 8% -10.4%
10% -23.3% 6% -19.0%
15% -30.7% 3% -26.8%
20% -37.5% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.00 · official $19.00 (match) · 332 history records