Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:19:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x504f…3c4e world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$20 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate59%20W / 14L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$14
other 17% −$2
economics 6% +$1
politics 4% $0
weather 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 67% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 12 +0.2% -9.3% 58% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 12 +0.2% -9.3% 58% 0% -8.2%
all 34 -0.3% -9.8% 59% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -8.5%
10% -18.4% 0% -17.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.17 per $1 lost it wins $5.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses20 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage317d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $107 $104 −$3 (-3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $110 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $108 +$2 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $107 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $87 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $284 +$11 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $190 +$4 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $103 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 28 $81 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $101 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $4 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $7 $0 -6%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on August 22? Aug 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 US Open? Aug 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 13? Aug 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Au Aug 10 $8 $0 +1%
Will Brian Campbell be the first round leader at the 2025 FedEx St. Ju Aug 07 $10 −$2 -22%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025? Aug 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? Aug 06 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $80 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $27 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $111 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $110 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $16 21h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $27 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $12 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $36 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $36 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 28h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $36 28h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $61 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $43 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $42 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $20 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $34 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $73 36h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $87 16d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $87 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $40 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $43 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $16 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $10 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $1 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.54 · official $104.34 (match) · 128 history records