Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:33:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
50 0x5056…8634 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$26 (+12%) realized +$22 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$53
14 days+$57
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$41
other 14% +$2
sports 9% +$13
tech 2% +$4
politics 2% +$1
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +6.4% -3.7% 52% 52% +20.4%
≤30d 34 +8.5% -1.9% 53% 53% +20.9%
≤90d 34 +8.5% -1.9% 53% 53% +20.9%
all 34 +8.5% -1.9% 53% 53% +20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 53% +20.9%
10% -11.3% 53% +9.3%
15% -19.8% 50% -1.3%
20% -27.7% 47% -10.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)34 / 40
History coverage12d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$38 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +291%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 5? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +131%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 08 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $71 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $17 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $17 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $17 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $8 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.03 · official $54.04 (match) · 86 history records