Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:04:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
50 0x505b…f71d other 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$3,429 (+2%) realized +$3,358 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate62%48W / 30L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$1,816per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$3,071now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$3,108
sports 4% +$187
economics 3% +$34
politics 0% +$50
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -24.8% -32.0% 75% 0% -23.9%
all 78 -16.2% -24.2% 62% 26% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 26% -7.4%
10% -31.4% 18% -16.3%
15% -38.0% 12% -24.3%
20% -44.1% 9% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$86 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$3,071
Realized+$3,358
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses48 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage273d
Avg bet$1,816
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $3,000 $3,071 +$71 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 26 $100 $0 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 08 $50 −$44 -88%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2026-02-22? Mar 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw? Mar 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-28? Mar 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-02-28? Mar 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-21? Mar 08 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? Mar 08 $1,205 −$1,132 -94%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 08 $50 +$32 +64%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 08 $100 +$405 +405%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 08 $4,228 +$34 +1%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $100 −$68 -68%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Feb 19 $74 +$6 +9%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Feb 18 $500 +$587 +117%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Feb 16 $1,912 −$207 -11%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 13 $250 −$250 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX - Game 2 Winner Feb 13 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 13 $204 +$96 +47%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 3 Winner Feb 12 $184 +$20 +11%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 4 Winner Feb 10 $119 +$66 +55%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $492 −$4 -1%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $378 +$3 +1%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $650 +$3 +0%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $2,682 +$3 +0%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challen Jan 25 $3,656 +$4 +0%
Seeker FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 23 $4,321 +$18 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jan 21 $4,328 −$7 -0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) Jan 20 $217 $0 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jan 20 $990 +$10 +1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-11? Jan 12 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-10? Jan 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Falkirk FC win on 2026-01-10? Jan 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-10? Jan 11 $900 +$1 +0%
Will Burton Albion FC win on 2026-01-10? Jan 11 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-01-10? Jan 11 $2,198 +$2 +0%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 09 $1,000 +$5 +0%
US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $4,297 +$9 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $99,919 +$4,443 +4%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-08? Nov 30 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 06 $76 +$27 +35%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $50 +$26 +52%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Oct 31 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Oct 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? BUY No 100¢ $61 104d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $3,000 104d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-10? BUY No 100¢ $100 104d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-10? BUY No 100¢ $100 104d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL JD Gaming 4¢ $6 106d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 34¢ $50 106d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 61¢ $50 107d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming 45¢ $50 107d
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $50 114d
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-28? BUY Yes 28¢ $50 114d
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-02-28? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 114d
Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2026-02-22? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 120d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-22? SELL Yes 7¢ $32 120d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-22? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 120d
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA 20¢ $100 120d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $300 121d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $74 124d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? SELL Yes 10¢ $74 124d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,205 124d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $500 125d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $1,483 126d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $74 126d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 126d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $2 126d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $25 126d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $111 126d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,912 126d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,912 126d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs BUY DRX 56¢ $250 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,071.05 · official $3,071.05 (match) · 283 history records