Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:46:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x505f…645e sports 282 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1025 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$50,986 (+68%) realized +$50,750 · open +$236
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate21%137W / 518L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day1025.1pace
Fees−$939est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4,264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$9,073
other 5% +$98
world 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1025 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-58.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 655 -54.6% -58.9% 21% 18% -25.7%
≤30d 655 -54.6% -58.9% 21% 18% -25.7%
≤90d 655 -54.6% -58.9% 21% 18% -25.7%
all 655 -54.6% -58.9% 21% 18% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1025.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.9% 18% -25.7%
10% ← realistic here -62.8% 14% -32.8%
15% -66.4% 11% -39.3%
20% -69.7% 9% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -12% → late -97% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$71 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$4,264
Realized+$50,750
Unrealized+$236
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses137 / 518
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$939
Open positions49
Markets (closed)655 / 282
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$266
Trades / day1025.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 655 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Martin Damm 73¢ 66¢ $1,842 $1,672 −$170 (-9%)
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Andrey Rublev 46¢ 76¢ $356 $586 +$231 (+65%)
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse 73¢ 94¢ $409 $529 +$120 (+29%)
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie Michael Zheng 23¢ 36¢ $302 $484 +$182 (+60%)
Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Hubert Hurkacz 63¢ 62¢ $311 $308 −$3 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Sebastian Ofner Hamad Medjedovic 77¢ 76¢ $173 $169 −$3 (-2%)
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Ilbirs eSports 84¢ 88¢ $144 $152 +$7 (+5%)
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart Jelena Ostapenko 75¢ 92¢ $102 $124 +$22 (+22%)
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Botic van de Zandschulp Botic van de Zandschulp 52¢ 97¢ $39 $72 +$33 (+87%)
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Roman Safiullin 24¢ 24¢ $56 $58 +$2 (+3%)
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart Harriet Dart 9¢ 8¢ $57 $54 −$3 (-6%)
Wimbledon WTA: Ann Li vs Zeynep Sonmez Ann Li 43¢ 20¢ $47 $21 −$25 (-54%)
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Marco Trungelliti 53¢ 34¢ $21 $14 −$8 (-37%)
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Botic van de Zandschulp Aleksandar Kovacevic 24¢ 3¢ $36 $4 −$32 (-88%)
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Dalibor Svrcina 12¢ 15¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+25%)
Brasov: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Franco Roncadelli Franco Roncadelli 59¢ 25¢ $8 $3 −$4 (-58%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 19¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 14¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+3443%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 12¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+3011%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 6¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1360%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+1233%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1002%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+598%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+471%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+395%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 447 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros ATP: Michael Zheng vs Dino Prizmic Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $142 −$142 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 29 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Damajuana - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Yawara Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: ROSSMANN Centaurs vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO1) - Prime League Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: VfB eSports vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - Prime League Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Alex Molcan vs Felix Gill Jun 29 $115 −$115 -100%
LoL: Joblife vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Jun 29 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs SINQU - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs SPARTA - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 29 $301 −$301 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 29 $67 −$67 -100%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 29 $314 −$314 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Jun 29 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $246 −$246 -100%
LoL: Disguised vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey Jun 29 $112 −$112 -100%
Counter-Strike: Haunted House vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $278 −$278 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Maya Joint vs Ann Li Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Voca vs Zomblers (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North A Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Lilmix - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs UNiTY esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $82 −$82 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Voca - Map 3 Winner Jun 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 29 $45 −$45 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 29 $77 −$77 -100%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs paiN Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Geneva Open, Qualification: Kilian Feldbausch vs Nishesh Basavareddy Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: Esprit Shōnen vs F9 EICAR (BO3) - VCL France: Revolution Sta Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 9¢ $0 0m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 9¢ $0 0m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 8¢ $5 2m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 8¢ $3 2m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 9¢ $9 2m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 10¢ $10 3m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 19¢ $3 4m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 9¢ $0 5m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 9¢ $0 5m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 9¢ $0 5m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 9¢ $9 6m
Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 63¢ $252 8m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 10¢ $10 9m
Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 64¢ $59 9m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 9¢ $0 10m
Wimbledon WTA: Ann Li vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Ann Li 44¢ $45 12m
Wimbledon ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Hamad Medjedovic 77¢ $169 13m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 24¢ $54 15m
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien BUY Dalibor Svrcina 12¢ $3 16m
Wimbledon WTA: Ann Li vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Ann Li 29¢ $3 16m
Wimbledon ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Hamad Medjedovic 78¢ $4 16m
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 30¢ $20 19m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 8¢ $8 20m
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 23¢ $94 31m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Jelena Ostapenko 76¢ $27 35m
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Marco Trungelliti 53¢ $9 35m
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Marco Trungelliti 53¢ $12 35m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Jelena Ostapenko 75¢ $75 35m
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 23¢ $31 38m
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 22¢ $72 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,263.72 · official $4,096.13 · 3500 history records