Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:50:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x505f…5624 crypto 804 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$55 (-1%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate64%513W / 291L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day44.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$15
14 days+$34
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$98
weather 8% −$3
sports 2% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +5.9% -4.2% 85% 85% -3.1%
≤30d 491 +2.5% -7.2% 80% 57% -8.6%
≤90d 804 +0.3% -9.3% 64% 48% -12.8%
all 804 +0.3% -9.3% 64% 48% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 48% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 30% -21.1%
15% -25.9% 18% -28.8%
20% -33.1% 11% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses513 / 291
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)804 / 804
History coverage43d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day44.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 804 Trades
no open positions (116 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$8 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2513 history records