Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
50 0x5062…4a69 world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 311d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$4
politics 13% $0
other 13% +$2
crypto 12% +$1
economics 6% $0
weather 6% $0
sports 6% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +14.8% +3.9% 40% 40% -7.5%
≤30d 11 +7.3% -3.0% 55% 18% -8.1%
≤90d 11 +7.3% -3.0% 55% 18% -8.1%
all 34 +2.5% -7.2% 41% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 6% -9.0%
10% -16.1% 6% -17.7%
15% -24.2% 3% -25.6%
20% -31.6% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

311d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage311d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +29%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $37 −$2 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$4 +52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $37 +$1 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $64 +$2 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $49 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or higher on Aug Aug 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Aug 13 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Aug 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in July? Aug 12 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum above $4000 on August 11? Aug 12 $46 +$1 +1%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? Aug 12 $9 $0 -1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 11 $6 $0 +5%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 11 $14 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 11 $48 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on August 10 at 5 Aug 10 $54 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $39 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $14 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $24 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 87¢ $35 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $37 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 35¢ $38 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $37 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $31 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $3 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $26 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $6 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $23 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $9 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $28 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.02 · official $40.85 (match) · 124 history records