Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:42:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
50 0x5062…0b34 sports 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$768 (-1%) realized −$986 · open +$218
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate65%51W / 28L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$966per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$606est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$918now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,944
7 days+$3,985
14 days+$4,831
30 days−$3,248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$231
crypto 18% −$1,800
other 1% −$78
economics 1% +$18
politics 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +46.0% +32.1% 85% 55% +2.9%
≤30d 72 +9.5% -1.0% 67% 50% -14.0%
≤90d 79 +5.6% -4.4% 65% 48% -12.0%
all 79 +5.6% -4.4% 65% 48% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 48% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 30% -20.5%
15% -21.9% 22% -28.1%
20% -29.6% 11% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,108) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$276 vs −$587 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$918
Realized−$986
Unrealized+$218
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses51 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$606
Open positions6
Markets (closed)79 / 85
History coverage31d
Avg bet$966
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 17¢ 38¢ $200 $441 +$241 (+121%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 32¢ 24¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $4,108 +$184 +4%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,002 +$62 +6%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1,006 −$1,000 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $604 −$1 -0%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$123 +1194%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,002 +$73 +7%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $804 +$163 +20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,002 +$87 +9%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $707 +$338 +48%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,108 +$321 +29%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,001 +$51 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $805 +$208 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,513 +$206 +14%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $454 +$206 +45%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2,007 +$268 +13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,809 +$392 +22%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,102 +$76 +7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $503 +$146 +29%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,002 +$52 +5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $753 +$131 +17%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $602 +$65 +11%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $153 −$119 -78%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $507 +$437 +86%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $501 +$42 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $509 +$41 +8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $503 +$103 +20%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $1,004 +$144 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $510 +$794 +156%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $1,005 +$83 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $304 +$213 +70%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,003 +$128 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $604 +$236 +39%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $31 −$12 -40%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $560 +$239 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $500 +$212 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $603 +$113 +19%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $304 +$69 +22%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $686 +$258 +38%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $270 −$267 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $102 +$168 +165%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2,558 −$886 -35%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $557 −$550 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 May 31 $816 −$692 -85%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 May 31 $848 +$310 +36%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 May 30 $816 +$206 +25%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 May 29 $1,070 −$1,050 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 29 $2,529 −$2,510 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $61 −$60 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,249 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $3,004 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 16¢ $92 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1,006 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $1,002 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 80¢ $603 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $102 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1,002 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $604 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 2¢ $10 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 8¢ $10 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1,007 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 83¢ $804 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1,002 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $707 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1,002 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 81¢ $1,719 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $405 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $504 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $604 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $805 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $1,001 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $2,007 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $918.26 · official $918.26 (match) · 332 history records