Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5063…1339 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$45 (-4%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$13
politics 24% −$1
other 23% +$2
sports 6% −$30
culture 5% −$2
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.3% -13.4% 0% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 8 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 13 -2.5% -11.8% 8% 0% -12.0%
all 45 -4.2% -13.3% 27% 2% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 2% -13.3%
10% -21.6% 0% -21.6%
15% -29.2% 0% -29.2%
20% -36.1% 0% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage306d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $36 −$3 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $40 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $28 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $23 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $65 −$4 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $37 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $40 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 22 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $37 −$4 -12%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 04 $9 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 19 $4 −$2 -48%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 23 $6 +$1 +19%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $10 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 29 $6 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $2 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $7 $0 -3%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 02 $8 $0 -1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 29 $9 −$2 -18%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 23 $4 $0 -4%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $68 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $36 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $33 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 58¢ $36 18h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $3 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $28 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $17 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $33 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $33 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $22 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $2 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $32 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $3 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $34 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $27 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $28 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $12 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $26 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $33 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $4 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 94¢ $37 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $40 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records