Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:27:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x5064…df25
world · 38 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
+$12 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage443d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 1 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 85¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $39 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $34 −$4 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $43 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? May 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next May 06 $2 $0 +9%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Apr 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 11 $3 $0 -6%
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 09 $25 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $13 +$13 +94%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Cana Apr 04 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 30-40% on the EU by June 30? Apr 04 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump dance in March? Mar 30 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% −$2
other 21% +$13
politics 18% +$1
crypto 9% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 5h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $16 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $40 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $40 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $18 27h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $18 27h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $40 31h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $39 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $30 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $39 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $39 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $25 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $14 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $43 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $43 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $7 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.2% -10.6% 20% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 13 -0.7% -10.2% 23% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 13 -0.7% -10.2% 23% 0% -10.0%
all 37 +3.7% -6.2% 46% 5% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 5% -8.2%
10% -15.1% 5% -17.0%
15% -23.3% 5% -25.0%
20% -30.9% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.22 · official $37.22 (match) · 98 history records