Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:30:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5065…14ba crypto 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,136 (-86%) realized −$1,203 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%3W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$934
sports 9% −$120
weather 9% −$63
other 5% +$67
economics 2% −$22
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-79.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 6 -79.4% -81.4% 17% 17% -92.9%
all 30 -77.4% -79.5% 10% 10% -91.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -79.5% 10% -91.8%
10% -81.5% 10% -92.5%
15% -83.3% 7% -93.3%
20% -84.9% 7% -93.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -92% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -77% · $-wt -91% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late -83% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$43 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$1,203
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses3 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage94d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 30¢ 100¢ $29 $97 +$68 (+233%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 30 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 30 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 19? Mar 19 $120 −$63 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 19 $483 −$477 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Warriors vs. Celtics Mar 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 18 $14 +$12 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 18 $9 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 18 $10 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $40 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $10 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $7 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $15 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $10 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $10 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $15 93d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 93d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 19? SELL Yes 11¢ $57 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $483 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $17 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $124 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $76 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $15 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $15 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $15 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $15 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $15 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $15 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $10 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $4 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.85 · official $132.85 (match) · 62 history records