Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:31:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5065…7aa9 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$46 (-8%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +3.7% -6.2% 40% 40% -17.0%
≤30d 20 +3.7% -6.2% 40% 40% -17.0%
≤90d 20 +3.7% -6.2% 40% 40% -17.0%
all 20 +3.7% -6.2% 40% 40% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 40% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 35% -24.9%
15% -23.4% 35% -32.2%
20% -30.9% 30% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$27 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$44 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$51 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$74 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$70 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $37 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $8 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $29 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records