Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$2

7 days−$2

14 days−$2

30 days−$2

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$9	$9	−$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 12	$5	$0	-10%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 12	$2	−$2	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

other 90% −$1

sports 10% −$2

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$9	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	16¢	$4	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	47¢	$5	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$5	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	1h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	6h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-59.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-55.3%	-59.5%	0%	0%	-43.2%
≤30d	2	-55.3%	-59.5%	0%	0%	-43.2%
≤90d	2	-55.3%	-59.5%	0%	0%	-43.2%
all	2	-55.3%	-59.5%	0%	0%	-43.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-59.5%	0%	-43.2%
10%	-63.4%	0%	-48.6%
15%	-66.9%	0%	-53.6%
20%	-70.2%	0%	-58.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.