Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x506b…e805
sports · 412 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
+$122 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$151 · open −$30
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$114
Realized+$151
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses229 / 165
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions18
Markets (closed)394 / 412
History coverage51d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 18 History 394 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$48
14 days+$20
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Yes 59¢ 81¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+38%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 64¢ 74¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ 69¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ 69¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+20%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 52¢ 63¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 67¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ 58¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Seattle Mariners 58¢ 57¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 47¢ 46¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 12¢ $15 $5 −$10 (-65%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 49¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $18 $2 −$16 (-90%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Los Angeles Dodgers 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Kyrian Jacquet 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Texas Rangers 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Kamil Majchrzak Kamil Majchrzak 21¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe Hubert Hurkacz 49¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +57%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $13 +$8 +60%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5 +$5 +101%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +67%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $3 +$2 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $3 +$3 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $5 +$3 +62%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $5 +$3 +65%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $5 +$4 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $5 +$4 +76%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $5 +$4 +86%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $5 +$4 +86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 09 $7 −$5 -77%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $10 +$2 +20%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $5 +$4 +83%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $10 +$6 +60%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $10 +$9 +86%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $8 $0 +5%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $6 +$3 +57%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $5 +$4 +70%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $3 +$2 +70%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $5 +$4 +70%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $1 $0 +14%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 07 $1 $0 +22%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +51%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $3 +$1 +38%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $3 +$2 +79%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $1 +$1 +114%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $4 −$4 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $6 −$6 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% +$43
crypto 13% +$1
politics 4% +$101
other 2% −$25
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $5 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $5 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $5 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $6 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $10 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $6 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $6 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 67¢ $6 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ $11 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $6 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 94¢ $5 2h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 28¢ $3 6h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 51¢ $7 18h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 51¢ $3 18h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $5 26h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $10 26h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $13 26h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $5 30h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $3 30h
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $3 30h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 31h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 56¢ $3 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $5 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $5 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $5 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 51¢ $5 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 61¢ $5 2d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 51¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +16.6% +5.5% 67% 65% +6.6%
≤30d 247 -0.8% -10.2% 55% 54% -9.1%
≤90d 394 +2.2% -7.5% 58% 51% -4.3%
all 394 +2.2% -7.5% 58% 51% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 51% -4.3%
10% -16.3% 44% -13.5%
15% -24.4% 40% -21.9%
20% -31.8% 34% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.44 · official $114.96 (match) · 1082 history records