Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x506c…b3db other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 436d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%20W / 28L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$4
world 29% −$1
politics 14% +$1
crypto 5% +$10
tech 4% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 3% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 43% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 8 -7.6% -16.4% 38% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 10 -6.1% -15.1% 40% 0% -10.1%
all 48 +11.6% +1.0% 42% 4% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 4% -7.8%
10% -8.7% 4% -16.6%
15% -17.5% 4% -24.6%
20% -25.6% 2% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.94 per $1 lost it wins $3.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

436d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses20 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage436d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $39 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $46 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $5 −$3 -62%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $5 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $7 $0 +5%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 04 $12 +$1 +6%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $7 +$4 +48%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Knicks vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 11 $14 $0 +2%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 10 $32 $0 +1%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 08 $1 $0 -4%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Publisher win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? May 05 $16 $0 +3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 03 $2 +$10 +554%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can May 03 $14 $0 +4%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 25 $14 $0 -1%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 23 $13 $0 -2%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 16 $21 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $25 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 34h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $38 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $3 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $2 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $41 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $46 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $46 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes $2 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes $5 31d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $2 31d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $3 31d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $4 32d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $0 32d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $1 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $24 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $23 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.88 · official $32.88 (match) · 145 history records