Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x506e…e4d3 world 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate26%18W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$3
other 16% −$1
sports 15% −$11
politics 14% $0
economics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 43% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 26 -0.7% -10.2% 27% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 69 -1.6% -11.0% 26% 1% -9.5%
all 70 -3.0% -12.2% 26% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 1% -9.9%
10% -20.6% 1% -18.5%
15% -28.3% 1% -26.4%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses18 / 52
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage490d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $44 +$2 +4%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $13 $0 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $39 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $11 $0 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $20 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $4 $0 -12%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $56 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $46 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $117 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $41 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $113 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $91 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 27 $11 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $18 +$2 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $44 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $4 +$1 +36%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $5 −$1 -18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $71 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 18 $3 $0 -11%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $39 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $82 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $129 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $154 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $96 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $10 $0 +3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $23 $0 -1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $4 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $161 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $46 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $26 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $25 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $18 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $21 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $13 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $13 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $20 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $18 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $39 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $42 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $10 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.97 · official $45.68 · 295 history records