Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:06:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x506f…e8bb other 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (110 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$3,917 (+6%) realized +$5,464 · open −$1,547
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate67%115W / 57L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day109.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$4,611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$11,429
politics 22% +$3,767
other 13% −$223
crypto 8% −$2,066
tech 7% +$1,720
finance 2% −$53
economics 2% +$50
sports 1% +$83
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (110 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -23.4% -30.7% 34% 24% -8.4%
≤30d 172 +41.2% +27.7% 67% 42% +15.5%
≤90d 172 +41.2% +27.7% 67% 42% +15.5%
all 172 +41.2% +27.7% 67% 42% +15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.7% 42% +15.5%
10% ← realistic here +15.5% 32% +4.5%
15% +4.4% 25% -5.6%
20% -5.9% 19% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +83% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$64 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.51 per $1 lost it wins $5.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$4,611
Realized+$5,464
Unrealized−$1,547
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses115 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions73
Markets (closed)172 / 236
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$273
Trades / day109.7
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 73 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $637 $691 +$54 (+8%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $350 $346 −$4 (-1%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No 84¢ 88¢ $299 $313 +$14 (+5%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? No 60¢ 56¢ $327 $305 −$22 (-7%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 75¢ 91¢ $233 $282 +$49 (+21%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 82¢ 63¢ $324 $246 −$78 (-24%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $168 $173 +$5 (+3%)
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No 90¢ 85¢ $170 $160 −$10 (-6%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $162 $158 −$3 (-2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 65¢ 72¢ $107 $118 +$11 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $131 $115 −$15 (-12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $157 $106 −$50 (-32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $82 $101 +$19 (+23%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $128 $98 −$31 (-24%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 48¢ $51 $97 +$46 (+90%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 68¢ 48¢ $137 $96 −$41 (-30%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 88¢ 95¢ $88 $95 +$6 (+7%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? No 89¢ 93¢ $89 $93 +$4 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $68 $77 +$9 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 40¢ 5¢ $537 $62 −$475 (-88%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 15¢ $11 $58 +$47 (+418%)
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 86¢ 72¢ $67 $57 −$11 (-16%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 33¢ 36¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+11%)
Will Tuyo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 50¢ $59 $54 −$4 (-7%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 36¢ 52¢ $37 $54 +$17 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? Jun 21 $18 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? Jun 21 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 21 $140 +$361 +258%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $10.5B by June 30? Jun 21 $74 −$74 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 21 $248 +$20 +8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $529 +$252 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 21 $1,588 −$147 -9%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 21 $170 +$26 +15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 21 $51 −$17 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 21 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? Jun 21 $59 −$11 -18%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 21 $138 −$138 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 21 $96 −$13 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 21 $301 −$251 -83%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 21 $184 −$184 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $763 −$92 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 21 $515 −$108 -21%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 21 $482 +$22 +5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 21 $450 −$50 -11%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 21 $175 −$175 -100%
Claude 4.8 released by June 15? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -64%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $763 +$29 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $308 −$104 -34%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 20 $257 +$887 +345%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $33 +$7 +20%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 18 $1,514 −$1,130 -75%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $973 +$226 +23%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 16 $467 +$202 +43%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $2,134 −$39 -2%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 15 $163 +$48 +29%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 15 $621 +$102 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 15 $125 −$17 -13%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +105%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 14 $570 −$28 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $438 +$160 +36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $438 +$735 +168%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 63¢ $2 41m
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 63¢ $19 44m
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 63¢ $63 44m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 47¢ $15 57m
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? SELL No 91¢ $18 1h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $94 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $120 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 52¢ $47 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 52¢ $56 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $27 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $41 7h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $13 11h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $2 12h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $11 12h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $10 12h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $6 12h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $41 13h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $41 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $52 18h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $41 20h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $41 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,611.01 · official $4,627.19 (match) · 3500 history records