Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5073…16a7 other 348 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,655 (+4%) realized +$1,553 · open +$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%117W / 200L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2,815now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$171
14 days+$412
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$272
other 24% +$546
finance 16% +$295
politics 11% +$134
economics 8% −$64
sports 2% +$396
weather 1% −$76
tech 0% −$8
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -26.3% -33.3% 60% 33% +0.2%
≤30d 65 -22.7% -30.1% 37% 22% -9.7%
≤90d 304 +0.2% -9.4% 36% 29% -6.2%
all 317 +2.6% -7.2% 37% 30% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 30% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 22% -14.8%
15% -24.2% 17% -23.0%
20% -31.6% 14% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$17 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$2,815
Realized+$1,553
Unrealized+$102
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses117 / 200
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions32
Markets (closed)317 / 348
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$133
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 82¢ 82¢ $514 $513 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? Yes 40¢ 62¢ $259 $403 +$144 (+56%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 70¢ 70¢ $301 $303 +$2 (+1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 62¢ 68¢ $186 $206 +$20 (+10%)
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? No 64¢ 81¢ $135 $173 +$37 (+28%)
Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? Yes 70¢ 47¢ $244 $164 −$80 (-33%)
Will the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $151 $155 +$4 (+2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $141 $145 +$5 (+3%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%? Yes 22¢ 38¢ $78 $135 +$58 (+74%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $103 $95 −$8 (-8%)
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? No 79¢ 90¢ $79 $90 +$12 (+15%)
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $65 $77 +$12 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $63 $74 +$11 (+17%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-5%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-3%)
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting? Yes 28¢ 15¢ $72 $38 −$33 (-46%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No 71¢ 76¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+6%)
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting? Yes 32¢ 16¢ $53 $27 −$26 (-49%)
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting? Yes 68¢ 35¢ $41 $21 −$20 (-49%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $22 $17 −$4 (-21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-11%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $14 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-63%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.50% and 6.99%? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.00% and 6.49%? Jun 26 $28 +$5 +19%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 25 $9 $0 +3%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the June meeting? Jun 25 $3 $0 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte Jun 25 $229 +$13 +6%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 25 $579 +$51 +9%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $18 +$6 +33%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $28 +$7 +24%
Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 me Jun 22 $8 −$7 -88%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $642 +$122 +19%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $15 −$14 -90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$8 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 +$6 +65%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $1,575 +$130 +8%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 17 $633 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -61%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 17 $89 −$27 -31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $128 +$20 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $77 −$4 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $619 −$111 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $814 +$277 +34%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Jun 15 $496 +$2 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$10 -24%
Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 me Jun 15 $5 −$2 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,038 +$406 +39%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $88 −$35 -39%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 15 $103 −$30 -29%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $132 −$35 -27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 15 $78 +$16 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 15 $174 −$40 -23%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 15 $1,745 +$89 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3,527 −$443 -13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 14 $413 +$35 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$6 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $415 −$97 -23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 11 $174 −$3 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $121 −$16 -13%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 10 $17 +$3 +17%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May? Jun 10 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Jun 09 $57 −$26 -46%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? Jun 05 $21 +$29 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $24 58m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $120 58m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $71 58m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 82¢ $447 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 82¢ $72 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 82¢ $486 1h
Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 3h
Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 66¢ $26 4h
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.00% and 6.49%? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 7h
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 7h
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 7h
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? SELL Yes 33¢ $17 7h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 51¢ $37 9h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 50¢ $36 9h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 49¢ $10 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $56 9h
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $1 13h
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $10 13h
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $2 13h
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $8 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 25h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 78¢ $41 25h
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte SELL Yes 90¢ $121 25h
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? SELL Yes 95¢ $80 25h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 78¢ $101 25h
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 26h
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 BUY Yes 36¢ $19 27h
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $13 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,815.06 · official $2,815.12 (match) · 3500 history records